One of the main problems for countries with oil resources is the existence of Dutch disease, during which, with the abundance of oil revenues, on the one hand, it is faced with a decrease in the exchange rate and on the other hand, with a decrease in competitiveness. The combination of these factors causes the economy to be highly vulnerable to external fluctuations. In this regard, the present study uses Iranian economic statistics during the period 1992-2023 and applies the ARDL approach to assess the impact of Dutch disease on the Iranian economy, focusing on the dynamics of the exchange rate and export diversity. The results of the present study show that there is a kind of causality from oil exports to the exchange rate and export diversity, but ARDL estimates show that oil revenues have improved the value of the national currency in the short term, but in the long term this effect is not statistically significant. Also, oil revenues have reduced export diversity in both the short and long term and have significantly increased the possibility of the emergence of Dutch disease. Therefore, the existence of Dutch disease in the Iranian economy has been confirmed, but given the decrease in foreign income, n recent years, this phenomenon has become less. Industrialization in the economy has significantly reduced the impact of the emergence of Dutch disease, and this is due to the nature of the development of the industrial sector in the growth of technology and innovation, ultimately foreign investment in the Iranian economy has not had a significant effect on export diversification. Therefore, improving diplomacy to remove economic sanctions and using the capacity of foreign direct investment to strengthen export diversification and using oil revenues to improve infrastructure to encourage the entry of the private sector are the most important policies to avoid Dutch disease.

 Abstract: The increasing trend of income inequality, along with high inflation, unemployment, and social injustice in the Middle East, has made this region one of the most unequal regions in the world. These acute socio-economic conditions have made it more than ever clear that policymakers need to pay serious attention to the issue of reducing inequality and more equitable income distribution. In the meantime, corruption is recognized as one of the most important structural factors exacerbating inequality in the countries of this region. This study examines in-depth the mechanisms of the impact of corruption on income inequality in the Middle East. In this regard, to examine the relationship between corruption and other control variables such as the global governance index, gross domestic product, trade openness, and unemployment rate with income inequality, panel data econometric techniques are used with annual data over the period 2012-2022 for 12 Middle East countries based on the World Bank classification.

  International economic sanctions, as one of the foreign policy tools of major powers, have been extensively used against energy-exporting countries in recent decades, leaving profound impacts on the economic structure of these countries; this is while severe and successive fluctuations in revenues from energy exports, as an endogenous and structural shock, have posed additional challenges to macroeconomic stability and the investment climate in these countries. In this regard, the present research, aiming at a comparative analysis of the effects of international sanctions on the economic resilience of Iran and Russia as two major energy-exporting economies under extensive sanctions, has analyzed the role of energy revenues and government effectiveness in shaping the resilience capacity of these two countries. This study employs annual data from the period 2005 to 2022 and utilizes the Time-Series Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) as its analytical tool. The empirical findings reveal striking structural differences between the two economies. Regarding sanctions, a negative and significant coefficient is observed in both countries, but its intensity in Iran (-0.79) is approximately four times stronger than in Russia (-0.21), indicating the higher vulnerability of Iran's economic structure. For the energy revenue variable, the results are even more contradictory: this variable has a weakening effect on resilience in Iran (coefficient -0.01), confirming the "resource curse" phenomenon; while in Russia, a strengthening relationship (positive coefficient 0.00003) is established, indicating more efficient management of oil revenues. The most significant contrast occurs in the role of government effectiveness: this institutional indicator is the strongest factor increasing resilience in Russia (coefficient +1.74); however, in Iran, it shows an inverse and weakening relationship (coefficient -0.46), reflecting the characteristics of a rentier political economy and the inefficiency of government interventions. Finally, the interaction effect of sanctions and energy revenue is positive and significant in both countries, which testifies to the role of energy revenues as a mitigating shield in reducing the destructive effects of sanctio   although the size of this mitigating effect is also estimated to be stronger in Iran. In summary, this research concludes that the difference in the economic resilience of Iran and Russia in the face of external shocks is not only due to the scale of the shocks but is primarily the product of differences in the quality of governance institutions and the structural capacity of the economy to transform resource revenues into productive and resilient investment.

   Abstract:   Unemployment is one of the most significant socio-economic challenges facing developing economies, including Iran. A well-functioning labor market is essential for economic stability, social cohesion, and sustainable growth. Monetary policy and financial development are two crucial levers that policymakers can use to combat unemployment. These tools have been extensively studied in both developed and developing countries; however, their specific impacts in economies like Iran, with unique institutional and structural characteristics, require deeper exploration. Therefore, this study employs time series data from 2001 to 2022 to analyze how monetary policy instruments—including the money supply, interest rate, and exchange rate—along with a composite of three financial development indicators (Financial Development Efficiency Index, Financial Depth Index, and Structural Financial Development Index), affect the unemployment rate. Short-term dynamics will be assessed using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) model, while long-term relationships will be examined through a Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM). The findings indicate that, in the short term, no clear causal relationship between monetary policy and unemployment is observed, and even unconventional reactions are present. However, in the long term, a significant equilibrium relationship stabilizes, whereby both expansionary monetary policy and financial development have a reducing effect on the unemployment rate. Financial development shows a weak impact in the short term but becomes the strongest factor reducing unemployment in the medium term, and its reducing effect persists into the long termveu, albeit with less intensity. Conversely, the interest rate has an unexpected negative effect on unemployment in the short term and a positive effect in the long term. Furthermore, currency depreciation reduces unemployment in the short term by boosting exports, but in the long term, as inflationary effects dominate, this relationship reverses. In conclusion, the results emphasize the necessity of adopting a long-term perspective in policymaking and aligning monetary policy with structural reforms in the labor market and financial system to achieve sustainable employment.    Key Words: Unemployment, Monetary Policies, Financial Development, Vector Autoregression (VAR), Structural Vector Error Correction Model (SVECM), Iran.

  Income inequality has always been regarded as one of the most significant political, social, and economic concerns worldwide. It is also one of the challenges that has drawn the attention of policymakers and economic authorities in Iran in recent decades. Therefore, identifying the factors influencing income distribution is crucial in policymaking. Accordingly, the present study seeks to empirically examine the relationship between fiscal policy (government expenditures, tax rates, and financial development) and income inequality (Gini coefficient) using the Markov-Switching approach, with quarterly data from 2001 to 2022. The results of the study indicate that the hypothesis of symmetry regarding the effects of financial development, government expenditures, and income taxes on income distribution in Iran during recessions and booms can be rejected. The impact of financial development, government expenditures, and income taxes—as indicators of fiscal policy—on income distribution is greater during booms than during recessions. These findings suggest that fiscal policy has asymmetric effects on income distribution in Iran.

  The present study was conducted to identify the key success factors in the Kermanshah Province Industrial Estate Company. In the first stage, the factors affecting the success of this company were comprehensively identified and categorized, and based on that, a key factor model was developed. In the next step, practical and effective solutions were presented to improve the performance and increase the productivity of the industrial estate company. This study was conducted with a mixed approach and applied purpose. In the qualitative section, data were collected through purposive sampling and in-depth semi-structured interviews. The statistical population included university professors with relevant specialized experience, experts from the Kermanshah Province Industrial Estate Company, industry owners and businesses located in the province's industrial estates, as well as relevant documents and texts. Sampling in the qualitative section continued until theoretical saturation was reached; in such a way that no new data was added to the previous data in the seventeenth interview onwards. Qualitative data were coded using thematic analysis method and Brown and Clark's six-step thematic analysis process was used. The results of the thematic analysis were categorized into basic themes, organizing themes, and overarching themes. In the quantitative section, the key success factors model in the industrial estate company was evaluated. Data were collected through a questionnaire derived from qualitative findings and the statistical population was similar to the qualitative section. 35 valid questionnaires were collected. The face and content validity of the questionnaire was confirmed by experts and its construct validity and composite reliability were confirmed through structural equation modeling. Quantitative data analysis was performed using descriptive statistics such as mean and frequency and inferential statistics including structural equation modeling using    version 27 and SmartPLS version 4 software. In this section, the conceptual model resulting from the qualitative analysis was validated and its validity was confirmed.

   Income inequality is one of the main challenges facing middle-income countries on the path to sustainable development and inclusive growth. In this regard, financial inclusion and the development of the financial system can play an important role in reducing inequality. This study aims to investigate the role of financial inclusion, through the channel of financial development, on income inequality in a comparative study of Iran and a panel of selected middle-income countries from 2005 to 2023. The central research question is whether and how a country's level of financial development affects the effectiveness of financial inclusion in reducing income inequality. To test the research hypotheses, a panel data model using the Fixed Effects method was employed, incorporating an interaction term to measure the channel role of financial development. Income inequality is measured by the Gini coefficient, while financial inclusion and financial development are measured using standard international indicators. The key findings of the research indicate that financial inclusion, by itself, has a strong, negative, and statistically significant effect on income inequality. Financial development is also independently associated with a reduction in inequality. However, the study's most significant finding, derived from the analysis of the interaction term, reveals a more complex and non-linear relationship. The positive and significant coefficient of the interaction term implies that as the level of financial development increases, the inequality-reducing power of financial inclusion diminishes. In other words, the effectiveness of financial inclusion in mitigating inequality is considerably greater in countries with lower levels of financial development. This finding carries important policy implications: policymakers should adopt a conditional, two-stage approach. In the early stages of development, focusing on expanding access to basic financial services can be a highly effective tool for reducing inequality. In later stages, however, the policy focus must shift towards structural reforms that ensure the "inclusiveness" and "efficiency" of the entire financial system, allowing its benefits to be broadly distributed and contributing to a sustainable reduction in inequality.

  This study examines the impact of environmental management accounting on firm performance by considering the mediating role of environmental innovation and environmental information tra  arency, as well as the moderating role of stakeholder integration and dynamic capabilities.The required data were collected by distributing a questionnaire among 306 senior executives and financial managers of small and medium-sized companies located in the west of the country. Smart PLS software was also used to analyze the data and test the hypotheses .The findings of the study indicate that environmental management accounting has a positive and significant impact on firm performance. Environmental innovation mediates the relationship between environmental management accounting and firm performance. And also, stakeholder integration strengthens the relationship between environmental innovation and firm performance. Overall, the findings of this study emphasize that implementing environmental management accounting systems as a strategic tool not only improves environmental performance, but also leads to improved financial performance through efficient cost management and identification of innovation opportunities. This study shows that achieving these desired results depends on stakeholder engagement. In fact, environmental innovation is the path through which environmental management accounting leads to superior performance, and the presence of committed stakeholders strengthens this path and increases its efficiency.

   Abstract: In this study we have been trying to examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission and ecological footprint in chosen developing and developed countries with quantile on quantile regression analysis, we used panel data of ten developed and developing countries in twenty seven years. In this study we create for models:   model 1: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission in five developing countries.   model2: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on ecological footprint in five developing countries. Model3: examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on carbon dioxide emission in five developed countries. Model4:   examine the asymmetric effect of renewable energy consumption and trade openness and economic growth on ecological footprint in five developed countries. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emission although in few quantiles positive impact and no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission. The result showed that in model1 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of economic growth on carbon emission. The result showed that in model2 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on ecological footprint is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in mode2 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission although in few quantiles negative impact was indicated.   The result showed that in model2 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of economic growth on ecological footprint is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on carbon emission is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half.    The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on carbon emission although in few quantiles no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model3 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of economic growth on carbon emission is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the negative impact of renewable energy consumption on ecological foot print is asymmetric which means this impact is positive in half of the quantiles and negative in the other half. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of trade openness on ecological foot print although in few quantiles negative impact and no impact was indicated. The result showed that in model4 most of the quantiles determined the positive impact of economic growth on ecological foot print.

  رشد بي سابقه و اهميت جهاني بيت كوين و طلا علاقه به درك

  Improving

 In economic literature, financial development is considered as one of the necessities of economic growth and development of countries. Hence, paying attention to financial development and analyzing its effects on economic growth is of particular importance. Achieving the desired economic growth and development is impossible without the existence of efficient financial institutions and appropriate financial resources. On the other hand, today, the ability to achieve innovations by using creative human resources is known as the first step to turn knowledge into wealth. . Therefore, considering the key importance of innovation and institutional development in the economy of developing countries, the present study examines the impact of institutional development and innovation on financial development in 12 OPEC member countries during the period of 2010-2022 using the fully modified least squares method (FMOLS). ) pays. Based on the results obtained, the effect of institutional development and innovation on financial development in OPEC member countries during the period from 2010 to 2022 has been positive and significant.

   Abstract Extensive studies have investigated the role of institutional factors in the expansion of financial space and have shown that institutional factors play an essential role in increasing the government's income. Among the institutional variables, corruption has been one of the main indicators studied. Among the most important variables affected by corruption is taxes. Tax reforms are necessary to expand the tax base, increase the efficiency of government revenue and support development goals, which in turn strengthens the financial environment. But corruption can prevent these beneficial effects in the financial space. Corruption can prevent tax reforms or delay their implementation. Or by weakening the quality of public spending, eroding citizens' trust in the government and also eliminating any progress in policies that support tax compliance, it reduces fiscal space. The current research examines the effects of tax reforms and corruption control index on the business environment in MENA countries. Considering the non-linear effects using the panel smooth transition regression (PSTR) method, an attempt has been made to investigate the role of the corruption control index in modeling the impact of tax reforms on the business climate. In this research, the panel mild transition regression (PSTR) method has been used to investigate the effect of tax reforms by considering the fluctuations of the corruption control index. Time data related to the time period from 2000 to 2018 in MENA region countries were used and statistical analysis was done. The results of the research show that tax reforms have a positive and significant effect on the business environment. Also, the corruption control index plays a negative and significant role in determining the health of the business environment. Based on this, it seems that reducing tax corruption can help improve business conditions. By providing important and useful results, the current research will help the decision makers and policy makers of the region to formulate and implement more appropriate tax policies and also pay special attention to reducing corruption in this area.

   In this study, the impact of per capita gross domestic income and environmental degradation on happiness in developed and developing countries during the years 2000 to 2022 has been investigated. Also, the wavelet-based quantile regression method was used for data analysis. On the other hand, in order to more closely examine the effect of the above variables on happiness, the variables of the urban population and the population of people over 65 years of age were added to the model as control variables and the following results were obtained: GDP per capita has a positive effect on the happiness index, on the other hand, the positive effect of income per capita decreases in developed countries that have higher happiness. But in developing countries, the relationship is upward, which means that in countries with a higher level of happiness, income has a greater positive effect on happiness. Also, this positive relationship has been confirmed in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term periods. The emission of carbon dioxide as the most important pollutant of the earth's atmosphere and the loss of tree covers have a negative effect on happiness in both categories of countries. The urban population variable has a positive and significant effect on happiness, this positive effect is due to more amenities in the urban environment. Also, the population of people over 65 has a negative effect on happiness. It means that whatever the amount of this population ratio, if it increases to the total population, the level of happiness in that society will decrease.

  In recent years, the concept of social welfare has received serious attention from sociologists, economists and other fields related to development, and it has always been a social concern in a country, especially in developing countries, including Iran

Forecasting the movement of stock market indices is one of the most important topics that is very important for investors, analysts and capital market experts. Due to the fact that the stock market is known as one of the most important financial markets in the world, forecasting stock market indices can be used as an important tool in the decisions of investors and analysts in the capital market. In the meantime, predicting the index of groups can help financial decision makers to make better decisions about the composition of their stock portfolio. There are many algorithms and methods for prediction. These algorithms are usually developed based on time series data analysis. For example, statistical and mathematical methods such as: linear regression, neural networks and machine learning algorithms can be used for prediction. The main goal of this thesis is to compare two artificial neural network models of multilayer perceptron (MLP) and autoregressive processes of cumulative moving average (ARIMA) to predict the indices of four selected stock market groups (automobiles and parts manufacturing, basic metals, pharmaceutical materials and products, and finished products). petroleum products). The time period of the data used in this thesis is from 01/01/1394 to 10/11/1401 on a daily basis. RMSE and MAPE evaluation criteria were used to compare the prediction accuracy of the models. The results showed that the MLP model has a better performance than the ARIMA model in predicting the two groups of automobiles and the manufacture of petroleum products and parts, and the ARIMA model performed better in the case of the two groups of pharmaceutical materials and products and basic metals.  

Investigating the effect of industrialization and urbanization on CO2 intensity in OPEC countries Abstract One of the most important negative externality of achieving higher economic growth is the emission of carbon dioxide and the reduction of environmental quality, which is partly caused by production processes and is inevitable, and partly caused by inefficiency in the economy, which can be reduced. This study investigates the effect of industrialization and urbanization on the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions using the statistical evidence of OPEC countries over 2000-2021. The results of the model estimation using the panel data approach show that energy intensity as an indicator of The inefficiency of energy consumption and urbanization as an indicator of the lack of optimal structure of cities has a positive and significant effect on the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions, in addition, industrialization by creating higher economic growth has a negative effect on the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions and Economic growth was first accompanied by a decrease in the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions and then led to an increase in the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions. Therefore, improving the production structure in order to reduce energy intensity, improving urban structures in order to reduce the effects of congestion and focusing on improving technology to increase the negative effect of industrialization on the intensity of carbon dioxide emissions are the most important policies to improve the quality of the environment. Keywords: urbanization, industrialization, intensity of carbon dioxide emissions, Panel data.   

The main goal of the current research was to design a model in line with the development of organizational entrepreneurship with an open innovation approach in the Ilam Gas Refinery. In order to achieve the goal in the present study, a sequential exploratory combined method was used, and the data were collected in two stages. In the qualitative phase, the required data were gathered through semi-structured interviews with 30 experts in the form of the Foundation's data approach. In this section, in order to check the validity of the combination of the four-stage framework and the six key questions model, and the within-subject agreement method was used to check the reliability, and finally, the data was collected and using the systematic plan of Strauss and Corbin, the codes and components of the organizational entrepreneurship development model with an innovation approach were used. It was obtained again and compiled in the form of a conceptual data model of the foundation. With the participation of experts in the field of entrepreneurship and innovation management at Razi University of Kermanshah and the senior management staff of Ilam Gas Refinery, a questionnaire was designed and distributed among the administrative staff of Ilam Gas Refinery through a random sampling method. In the quantitative phase of the research, using the confirmatory factor analysis method and the use of factor load criteria, Cronbach's alpha coefficient, composite reliability, average variance explained and the significance level of Bartlett's test, the validity of each of the components of the obtained model was examined in the qualitative part. found that the results indicated the validity of all components of the paradigm model. The findings of the research indicate that the causal conditions include the components of aggressive competition, entrepreneurial opportunism, knowledge acquisition, development of innovation resources and reduction of the cost of imitation, strategies also have the components of promoting internal and external partnerships, developing extra-organizational communication networks, improving infrastructures. technological organization, promotion of entrepreneurial behavior indicators in the organization, active cooperation in environmental innovation networks and effective knowledge management in the context of organizational digital literacy components, commitment and participation of human resources, innovative policy making, flexibility of organizational boundaries and risk culture Adaptability and creativity in the part of intervening conditions are also the components of open data culture, governance regulatory status, the level of financial and spiritual support of the government, the ruling view towards fundamental partnerships and the intellectual property exchange process, and finally, in the consequences part, the components of innovation governance in processes organization, improving the learning ability of the organization, effective management of market turbulence, improving the innovative performance of the organization, and maintaining and promoting sustainable factors of competitive advantage. Based on the obtained results, the realization of the development of organizational entrepreneurship with an open innovation approach requires synergy and fundamental partnerships between the key players of the open innovation ecosystem and adjusting or strengthening some of the structural variables that the decision makers of the organization can take into consideration and adopt favorable policies. In order to improve the necessary conditions for the realization of organizational entrepreneurship with an open innovation approach.  

  Inflation is one of the basic problems in Iran's economy. So that during the past years, Iran's economy has experienced high inflation. Therefore, identifying and estimating the factors affecting inflation in Iran can be useful in providing solutions to solve the problem of Iran's economy. One of the factors affecting inflation in Iran is the volume of liquidity and its components, i.e. the increasing coefficient of liquidity and the monetary base. The monetary base has different components based on expenses and sources. Based on expenses, the monetary base includes banknotes and muskox and reserves of commercial banks. According to sources, the monetary base includes net foreign assets of the central bank, net government debt, gross commercial bank debt and net other assets. The effects of spending components and monetary resources components on inflation are not the same. Estimating the impact of each component of monetary base expenses and resources on inflation is of particular importance and can be effective in the country's monetary policies. In this research, it is tried to estimate the effect of components of resources and expenditures on inflation in Iran using time series data for the period of 1370-1400 with self-explanatory econometric method with extended intervals (ARDL). The results indicate that the net foreign assets of the central bank and the net debt of the public sector to the central bank and the gross debt of commercial banks, which are part of the basic monetary resources, have a positive and significant effect on inflation during this period of time, and according to the findings of the research, Banknotes and bills in the flow and reserves of commercial banks with the central bank, which is one of the basic monetary expenses, have a positive and significant effect on inflation. In other words, in both models, the long-term equilibrium relationship between inflation rate variables, net foreign assets of foreign banks, net debt of the public sector to the central bank, gross debt of commercial banks to the central bank, reserves of commercial banks to the central bank and notes and Muskok is accepted in the flow.

Urbanization and industrialization are two important economic phenomena that have a complementary relationship, therefore, in favorable economic structures, urbanization is the source of inputs and the market for industrial products, and industry is able to meet the needs of urbanization, in this regard, the present research using statistical evidence of the provinces Iran investigates the relationship between urbanization and industrialization for the period 1390-1398 and using the systemic generalized moments approach, the results show that there is a kind of two-way causality between urbanization and industrialization in Iran's economy, in addition to this growth Industrialization has caused the growth of urbanization, and the growth of urbanization has caused an increase in industrialization due to the spillover effects of technology and knowledge among the workforce. Also, human capital and the ratio of credits have a positive and significant effect on urbanization, and economic growth has increased industrialization, so improving the quality of human capital, focusing credits on value-added activities is the most important policy to improve the relationship between industrialization and urbanization.  

  owadays, calculating efficiency in various organizations and industries is one of the necessary measures in order to compare the level of competitiveness in the domestic and foreign scene of a country, and banks are no exception to this rule. Therefore, it is very important to calculate the efficiency of banks and to know the factors affecting it. Therefore, the current research was conducted with the aim of determining the effect of capital adequacy ratio on the efficiency of the banking industry. For this purpose, 11 private and public banks of Iran were selected as a statistical sample during the years 2012 to 2022 and the required data were extracted from the audited annual financial statements of the banks. To measure the cost efficiency, the data coverage analysis method is used, and for the capital adequacy ratio, the ratio obtained by dividing the basic capital by the total assets weighted by the risk coefficients in percentage terms is used. Also, multivariable regression model and panel data method were used to test the research hypothesis. The results showed that the ratio of capital adequacy has a negative and significant effect on banking efficiency.

   Risk information play an important role in making the right decision and evaluation of the company. The purpose this study is to investigate the impact of Business Strategy on Risk Disclosure.This research is a descriptive- correlation research and can be considered as an applied one.The statiscal population of the study includes companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange from 2016 to 2020. sampling is based on systematic removal method and 69 ompanies have been selected as sample size. Multivariable regression and panel data are used for analyzing the variables. risk disclosure data was collected by content analysis of annual reports of companies. Results show a firm’s business strategy is a determinant of the amount of risk factor information in the annual report. The results showed that there is significant and positive relationship between prospector strategy and risk disclosure. Firms with an innovation-oriented prospector strategy report more about their risk factors than firms with an efficiency-oriented defender strategy. Also there is a significant and negative relationship between defender strategy and risk disclosure. Therefore, it can be said that defender companies disclose less risk in their annual report. Among the control variables of the research, firm size and systematic risk have an effect on the amount of risk information disclosed in annual reports.The results of research hypotheses are consistent with the research of (Weber and Musig,2022) which showed that there is a significant and positive relationship between prospector strategy and risk disclosure, and a significant and negative relationship between defender strategy and risk disclosure.

   Poverty is one of the most important economic variables that affects all economic and social issues of the society and is the main factor for growth and development in the economy. This study uses the statistical evidence of Iran's provinces over 2009-2019 to estimate the poverty rate using the Fixed Angle Inverse approach and then examines the relationship between labor productivity and poverty. The results of the estimates show that the poverty ratio has increased from 15.6% in 2009 to 23.4% in 2019. At the provincial level, the percentage of people below the poverty line in Sistan and Baluchistan province is the highest at 49% and in Tehran province at the lowest at 6.4%. Labor productivity in 2009 based on gross domestic product at the base price of 2011 was equal to 0.24 billion rials per employed person, and it changed to 0.336 in 2019 in a fluctuating trend. The estimation results show that there is bidirectional causality from poverty to productivity. Also, poverty has a negative and significant effect on labor productivity. But at the provincial level, it has been confirmed only in the provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, West Azerbaijan, Kermanshah, Khuzestan, Fars, Razavi Khorasan, Isfahan, Hamedan, Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari, Lorestan, Zanjan, North Khorasan and Alborz. However, there is some kind of causality from labor productivity to poverty at the country level for all provinces, but the negative effect of productivity on poverty has been confirmed only in the three provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran and Yazd. Therefore, improving the quality of education and health in order to increase the ability of the workforce and increase productivity, increasing the share of activities with high added value, focusing on creating economic stability and reducing the efficiency of markets without added value in order to develop activities with high added value are the most important policies proposed to reduce poverty and increasing productivity in Iran's economy.

Today, with the development of economic and social life, human needs and requirements have diversified. Industrial production and the evolution and growth of the industry can meet the needs and expectations of man and make his life comfortable and comfortable. One of the main factors of growth and development in the international arena is industrial production. Several factors affect the value of industrial production, including the impact of investment, technology, and changes in energy prices. Energy as the driving force of most economic activities has a special place in development. The accelerating trend of economic and industrial development in the countries of the world is largely related to the level of energy consumption. Oil, as a form of energy, is an essential raw material for industrial production. The price of petroleum products is so important in industrial production that production costs are directly affected by the price of oil. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of crude oil prices on the index of industrial production in Iran and the European Union. For this purpose, quarterly data for the period 2003:2 to 2020:3 for Iran and monthly data for January 1991 to March 2021 for EU countries have been used using wavelet-based quantile regression. According to the results of the present study, the effect of OPEC oil price on Iran's industrial production index is positive and significant in all quantiles except the second quantile, which has a negative and significant effect on Iran's industrial production index. Similarly, the effect of Brent oil prices on the EU industrial production index is positive and significant in all quantiles. According to the results of this study, in estimating the model using the quantile regression method based on wavelet transform, the effect of OPEC oil price on Iran's industrial production index is positive and significant in the first, second, and sixth components. Also, the effect of Brent oil price on the EU industrial production index using quantile estimation based on wavelet transform, indicates a positive and significant effect of Brent oil price on the EU industrial production index in the first to sixth components, in all quantiles. Keywords: Crude Oil Prices, Industrial Production, A Wavelet-Based Quantile Regression   

Monetary policies can cause wide fluctuations in economic variables. Sometimes these fluctuations can cause many problems, so that returning to the first point leaves destructive effects or at least requires a longer period of time. The evidence shows that there is a close relationship between the fluctuations of the total stock index and changes in monetary policies. As one of the main components of the financial market, stock market fluctuations are very important in the economy of countries, and therefore it is important to choose policies that cause less volatility. The monetary base, as a part of the overall liquidity, It is among the economic factors that influence the capital market. Therefore, it is necessary to be aware of the impact of monetary base shocks on the stock market. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of monetary base shocks on the stock price index in Tehran Stock Exchange. This research has investigated this issue by using the time series data of Iran's economy during the period 1370 to 1399 and by using econometric techniques and with the help of Eviews software. To investigate the effects of monetary base shocks, in the first stage, positive and negative monetary base shocks were extracted by following Taylor's law and defining a simple model and estimated using the ordinary least squares method. In the next step, the generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to investigate the effect of variables on stock prices. The estimation results show that the effects of positive and negative monetary base shocks on stock prices are asymmetric, so that positive and negative monetary base shocks affect the total stock price index differently and the impact of negative shocks is greater than the impact of positive shocks.   

   Justice and fair distribution of income have always been the concerns of policymakers in every country; Therefore, the study and analysis of the factors affecting it is of particular importance. The stock market and its impact on income inequality are among the most important of these factors; Therefore, in this study, the effect of the stock market on the Gini coefficient as an index of income inequality during the periods of 2019-1993 in a selection of developing countries and using quantitative panel regression is investigated. The results of model estimation show that with increasing investment in the stock market, the market turnover ratio increases and also the value of transactions increases. Due to the positive effect of the two on the Gini coefficient, inequality increases at first, but because the stock market is large. It becomes more and more pervasive, as a result of which the market value of the stock market increases relative to GDP, which has a positive relationship with the Gini coefficient, and different strata and more income groups turn to investing in the stock market. The results of this study indicate that first the income distribution inequality is increased and then over time this inequality decreases with the increase of people's income from investing in the stock market.

   Abstract Despite the emergence of electronic banking technologies in the country's banking system and the benefits of its usage, the acceptance of this type of technology by customers has suffered from some kind of backwardness and has not grown as expected. In this regard, this study seeks to identify the factors that determine the motivation for accepting Internet banking. The data of this dissertation is related to the status of customers' use and motivation of Internet banking services. The collected information was done by distributing a questionnaire from 1397 to 1400 in Kermanshah. Also, the statistical population is customers between 20-49 years of banks in the city of Kermanshah. The method of sampling was simple random in banks and was a questionnaire. According to the research findings, the social characteristics of websites, online services, and average internet-device access positively affect trust. These factors make up 32% of the variance of Internet banking trust. The social characteristics of websites, compatibility with lifestyle, online services, average internet/device access, and trust, positively affect the ease of use and account for 48% of the variance of ease of using internet banking. The social characteristics of websites, online services, and average Internet/device access positively affect lifestyle adaptation, accounting for 58% of the variance of Internet banking lifestyle adaptation. The social characteristics of websites and online services positively affect the average Internet access/device, and these factors constitute 35% of the average Internet access / Internet banking device.

   Today,­start-ups have a­significant impact on economic growth and job creation,and the success of ­start-ups ­such as Tapsi, Snape and Cafe Bazaar in creating employment indicates this issue. But these businesses face many obstacles and challenges in their development path,which are the main­reasons for the high rate of failure of these businesses,so in the present study, the aim is to determine the­­ indicators for identifying the space of new knowledge-based businesses­(start-ups)­­­that these indicators are ­used ­to continuously monitor the business environment.­This research is­applied in terms of exploratory purpose, in terms of applied results and in terms of type of qualitative research­ category.In order to achieve the research objectives, firstly, through the transcendental method,the initial­­indicators were extracted.In the next step, with 12 owners, managers and experts in this field who were selected by judgmental method, face interview In this stage, the aimwas to identify new indicators and appropriate to the ecosystem of­ Kermanshah province, analysisand coding of­interviews transcriptswas performed by MAXQDA content analysis technique and MAXQDA software version 2020.Validity and reliability of the coding process was also confirmed.­­Finally, by aggregating and combining the results of the previous two stages,final indicators­(the same challengesand barriers to­business space) including two categories­ of survey and statistical ­components­were determined.­

The history of human civilization has been plagued by a series of crises caused by epidemics, wars and catastrophes, each of which has had a significant contribution to the change in the activities of human societies. The present study was written with the aim of analyzing the model of consumer behavior in crisis situations and providing an appropriate marketing solution (Case study: Corona virus crisis on small and medium enterprises), It has been written. For this purpose, five main steps were prepared to achieve the objectives of this study. In the first step, the effects and consequences of the outbreak of COVID-19 on consumer behavior in Iranian society were studied and identified, which resulted in the presentation of a four-part model at the beginning of the fifth chapter. In the third step of the research, which is a kind of entry into the quantitative phase and field study of the research, the collected data from the qualitative part were measured and tested to check their accuracy. Then, in the fourth step of the research, a model for predicting consumer behavior in crisis situations was prepared and adjusted. Finally, in the fifth step, in addition to presenting the research process model, solutions to get out of the current problem were suggested to businesses. The research methodology was a combination of two quantitative and qualitative approaches (mixed approach) and using nest logic; For this purpose, in the qualitative section, using the qualitative research interview method and systematic analysis of Strauss and Corbin, data were collected and collected. How to collect data in the qualitative part using judgmental sampling and snowball and based on a sample of 20 people consisting of experts and experts aware of the subject was done. Interviews (semi-structured) were then conducted to achieve theoretical saturation, and data analysis was performed through qualitative or interpretive content analysis. Then, in the quantitative part, the quantitative part was made by using a survey method and preparing a researcher-made questionnaire, the validity and reliability of which were confirmed. The accuracy of the data was measured in the qualitative part. The statistical population of Kermanshah province and the sample size selected in the quantitative section were selected by Morgan et al. Table above 384. Quantitative data analysis was performed using    software. The findings of the qualitative sector indicate profound changes in consumer behavior, which were >  

سرمايه يك عامل كليدي در رشد وتوسعه اقتصادي محسوب مي شود اما امروزه فرار سرمايه يكي از مشكلات اساسي كشورهاي در حال توسعه است. فرار سرمايه مي تواند ناشي از عوامل مختلفي مانند اقتصادي،سياسي و اجتماعي باشد در پژوهش حاضر به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي تاثير گذار بر فرار سرمايه با استفاده از داده هاي سالانه طي بازه 1358تا1395 پرداخته مي شود در سال هاي مورد بررسي سال 1390 داراي بيشترين ميزان فرار سرمايه از كشور است در اين پژوهش به بررسي عوامل اقتصادي نظير نرخ ارز، تورم، رشد اقتصادي، ماليات، ريسك مركب و كسري بودجه بر ميزان فرار سرمايه پرداخته مي شود. مدل اين پژوهش با استفاده از روش  GMM , ARDL برآورد مي شود. نتايج اين پژوهش طبق روش GMM نشان مي دهد كه رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه، تورم و نرخ ارز تاثيري مثبت، ريسك مركب تاثيري منفي ، نرخ بهره و ماليات فاقد اثر معنا داري بر فرار سرمايه است. طبق روش ARDL در بلندمدت اثر متغيرهاي رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه دولت، ريسك مركب، تورم و نرخ ارز همانند روش GMM است . اما اثر ماليات و نرخ بهره بر فرار سرمايه در بلند مدت مشخص نيست. در كوتاه مدت تنها سه عامل رشد اقتصادي، كسري بودجه و ريسك اقتصادي اثري معناداري بر فرار سرمايه دارند در بين همه عوامل ذكر شده رشد اقتصادي بيشترين تاثير بر فرار سرمايه را دارد.

  Employment and economic growth are among the key macroeconomic variables in which policymakers consider their changes in order to achieve stability and economic development. Undoubtedly, the relationship between these two variables and how they affect them has a great influence on planning, policy making and coherent and efficient policies. Therefore, the relationship between economic growth and employment is of great importance.   The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of economic growth on employment of the major economic sectors of the countrys provinces. The timeframe used in this thesis is from 1380 to 1393. Generalized Torque (GMM) method was used for data analysis. The results of model estimation indicate that during the studied period, the effect of economic growth on the long-term effects of economic growth on employment of all three major economic sectors of the countrys provinces (agriculture, industry, services) has been positive. That is, increasing the value added will lead to increased employment of the major economic sectors of the countrys provinces. The investment variable in two parts of the agricultural and industrial sectors of the provinces has a positive effect and in the service sector there is a negative impact on employment. Also, the wage variable in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors has a negative effect on the service sector and has a positive effect on employment in the provinces. The results of the division of the provinces showed that the increase of the value added of the industrial sector in all three groups of provinces increased the employment of this sector than the other two.

  Employment in the modern society of Iran plays an important role in the development of the country and the achievement of the desired level of employment has always been one of the main goals of the government. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of banking facilities on the employment level of the major economic sectors in the provinces. The time interval used in this study was from 1380 to 1393, and for analyzing the data, the GMM generalized moments method was used. The results show that during the study period, for the total state of the provinces, the effect of the bank lending variable on the employment of agricultural sectors and services is negative, but in the industrial sector this effect is positive. The effect of the value added variable on employment in the agricultural sector is negative, but it is positive in the sectors of industry and services. Also, the results for the division show that the effect of the variable of banking facilities on employment in both groups is high and low unemployment in the agricultural sector is negative and equal. This effect in the industry sector is positive for both groups, but this effect is higher in the group with higher unemployment than in the lower unemployment group. In the services sector, the results also showed that the effect of the bank lending variables on employment in the group was higher with the unemployment rate and was lower in the unemployed group

  The achievement of economic growth and development is among the demands and goals of all nations. Achieving economic growth requires the creation of certain mechanisms in the political, economic, cultural and social fields. Powerful financial markets are among these mechanisms in the economic arena; One of the most important factors influencing the development of financial markets and their efficiency is the diversification of financial instruments. Due to the international financial limitations which has bee   imposed on Iran i   the past and recent years and Lack of Resources domestic banks as the most important Limitations financing in Iranian industries, which is one of the Islamic bonds suitable alternatives to be considered for Riba- based bonds. These bonds to be released mainly to for finance the government, businesses and organizations to government the most   innovations in The field of discussio   Paid and Islamic finance has been acquired   in recent decades. One of the innovations that can be said to compete with other similar tools in the conventional financial system and the release of Islamic bonds is Called Sukuk . In recent years, many developed countries, Muslims and non-Muslims in the Islamic countries are interested in developing sukuk as the best option for financial productivity beyond conventional finance. This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and the rate of issuance of sukuk paper   These economic variables include GDP, CPI, PPI, budget deficit, and other macroeconomic variables.   The impact of sukuk issuance on changes in the key variables of Irans economy in total is based on ARDL models; The ARDL method relates short-term fluctuations of variables to long-term equilibrium values. These models are in fact a kind of partial modification models that measure the long-term equilibrium with a long-term relationship, effective forces in the short run, and the speed of approaching the long-term equilibrium value. And the results show that the changes of macro variables listed in the short and long term have a significant effect on the changes in the issuance of sukuk papers.  

     Every economic activity requires energy consumption. Despite the fact that energy is considered as one of the factors of production and stimulus of economic growth, on the other hand it causes the emission of environmental pollutants. Iran is one of the examples of the growth pattern of natural resources, especially fossil fuels. Considering the end of the oil and gas resources of the country, from now on, there should be alternative sources of thought. One way of doing this is to using renewable energies instead of fossil fuels. The development and expansion of renewable energies contributes to the achievement of the countrys economic, social and environmental development goals and is one of the key factors in achieving sustainable development in any country. From the point of view of energy economy, it is logical to create diversification in energy sources and utilize a basket of different fuels. Also, production-related pollution is expected to decrease as well by increasing the use of renewable energy. In this research, the relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in Iran during the period of   1981-2014   is investigated using ARDL bounds and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results of short-run estimation indicate a positive and significant relationship between capital, labor force and economic growth. There is a positive relationship between renewable energy per capita consumption and economic growth, but it is not statistically significant. In the estimation model, the coefficient of error correction sentence (ECT(t-1)) is 0.47, that is, In the current period, 0.47 is Modified for the imbalance of the previous period. According to the results of estimation of long-run model, there is a positive and significant relationship between model variables including economic growth and renewable energy consumption per capita. The results of the vector error correction model are used to investigate the causal relationship between the model variables. show that there is no causal relationship between renewable energy consumption and economic growth in the long run, and there is only one-way relationship between labor force and economic growth. But in the short run, there is a One way relationship between economic growth and renewable energy use, as well as a One way relationship between labor force and economic growth, renewable energy consumption and capital. Investigating the short-run dynamics of the pattern using instantaneous response functions showed that the shock eventually vanishes and often affects the response variable positively. Therefore, in the long run, shocks from independent variables, such as renewable energy consumption per capita, will be balanced against economic growth.  

Nowadays, with development of information system and interaction among financial markets across the world, crisis and boom transition in different markets is growing with a significant speed and with regard to developing economies in country like Iran; contagion of crisis from global markets, slows down the development of the domestic economy. This study examines the contagion in financial markets of Iran and figure out, how the positive and negative shocks moves in different markets, and it tries to present guidelines for policy makers in order to improve domestic economy to avoid or control the entrance of shocks in national economic. The sample includes time series data of commodity prices on oil market, stock market of Tehran, foreign exchange market and gold market over a period of 8 years (Dec, 2008 –Dec, 2016) with weekly sampling rate. In order to achieve mentioned goals, we utilized a combination of Ornstein Uhlenbeck and Continuous Wavelet Transform. It finds out that the starting point of contagion in the financial markets of Iran is oil market and the speed of synchronization between stock market and oil market is more than other markets and then the foreign market and gold market are in the next places. In next step, it finds that the coherence of markets in short-run is powerfull between oil market and other markets, but this coherence in long-run is just between oil market and stock market and foreign exchange market, and after global oil sanction in 2012 against Iran, the coherrence between oil market and stock and foreign exchange markets is growed in middle-run.

اقتصاد دانش محور مي­تواند بستر لازم براي جبران عقب­ماندگي­هاي تاريخي ايران را فراهم كند. براي دست­يابي به توسعه، تلاش­هاي بسياري از لحاظ علمي و سياست­گذاري صورت گرفته­است. نظريه­پردازان همواره در تلاش بودند تا الگوي معتبري براي تبيين عوامل توسعه كشف و عرضه نمايند. الگوهاي توسعه، ابتدا به انباشت سرمايه فيزيكي توجه داشتند. اما امروزه سرمايه­گذاري انساني و توانمندسازي مردم به عنوان اولويت اصلي در نظر گرفته مي­شود. در اقتصاد دانش­محور، سرمايه انساني اهميت بالايي دارد، زيرا توليدكننده دانش، همين سرمايه انساني و مردم هستند. از طرفي اين سرمايه انساني توجه را به سمت آموزش جلب مي­كند. زيرا سرمايه انساني بايد كارآمد و داراي مهارت بالا باشند. بنابراين آموزش نقش بسيار مهمي در دانش محور شدن جامعه ايفا مي­كند. آموزش بايد دائمي و فراگير باشد به گونه­اي كه موجب توليد دانش و نوآوري شود. توسعه پايدار نيز كه امروزه به موضوعي مهم براي جوامع تبديل شده، تنها رشد اقتصادي را نمي­پذيرد بلكه بر رشد اقتصادي پايدار در كنار حفاظت از محيط زيست، پايداري اجتماعي، توزيع عادلانه فرصت­ها، برقراري عدالت و كاهش فقر تأكيد دارد. براي تحقق توسعه پايدار بر مواردي هم­چون آموزش نيروي انساني، افزايش دانش و آگاهي مردم در جهت رشد در همه جنبه­هاي زندگي بخصوص رشد بهداشت و حفاظت از محيط زيست، افزايش دانش و پيشرفت تكنولوژي در جهت بهبود كارايي انرژي و كاهش مصرف سوخت­هاي فسيلي تأكيد مي­كند.  روش تحقيق در اين پايان­نامه به صورت توصيفي-تحليلي مي­باشد و مدل مفهومي پانل ديتا نيز به كار مي­رود. روش سنجي پانل ديتا براي كشورهاي در حال توسعه(ايران، كويت، پاكستان، اردن، سري­لانكا و لبنان) و كشورهاي توسعه يافته (كانادا، اسپانيا، ايالت متحده امريكا، فنلاند و دانمارك) در بازه زماني 1980-2015   با توجه به متغيرهاي patent (ثبت اختراع)، GDP سرانه، نرخ ثبت نام در آموزش دانشگاهي و متغيرهاي وابسته شدت انرژي و انتشار دي­اكسيد كربن سرانه انجام مي­شود كه نتيجه گرفته مي­شود كه ظرفيت­هاي اقتصاد دانش بنيان   بر تحقق توسعه پايدار اثر مي­گذارد.

Smuggling is always a problem for all economic period for the development of a healthy economy. Therefore, It is vital to fight and prevent smuggling. In Iran, every year a large amount of foreign goods smuggled entered and the group of valuable commodities such as gasoline is smuggled out of the country. In the meantime, Kermanshah province -with a common border with Iraq- has important role to deal with the phenomenon of smuggling in the country. Therefore, in this thesis investigates the smuggling and pores that hidden from experts and managers that fight with smuggling of experts, are. In this thesis, data collected from questionnaires and they analyzed by    software. The fundamental point in the questionnaire that is designed to be Fuzzy. Fuzzy logic or Fuzzy theory is a kind of logic that replace conclusions methods in the human brain. The results show that between executive and regulatory factors, economic, security and political and social and cultural as well as an increase in smuggling in the region is essential. The results show that between executive factors and regulatory factors, economic, security and political and social and cultural as well as an increase in smuggling in the province, has a essential role. In the first step to fight and prevent the smuggling of goods, should be coordination between the concerned authorities. This coordination can be cost-effective in fighting with smuggling and make progress. Other factors such as changes in regulations, creating appropriate economic structure, create the right culture and fight   with smugglers through police force will be the next step.

امروزه اقتصاد هاي مختلف، تجربه هاي زيادي در زمينه نوسانات اقتصادي بدست آورده اندكه شامل دوران هاي رونق و ركود اقتصادي مي باشد.با توجه به اين كه يكي از موضوع هاي بسيار با اهميت در حوزه اقتصاد كلان ،تثبيت اقتصادي ورسيدن به اهداف اصلي كلان اقتصادي از جمله   رشد اقتصادي،افزايش اشتغال و كاهش تورم مي باشد،بنابراين به منظور تحقق اين اهداف و كاهش زيان هاي ناشي از سيكل هاي تجاري، سياستگذاران و برنامه ريزان اقتصادي   همواره تلاش مي كنندتا با كنترل اين نوسانات اقتصادي تا حد ممكن اين اهداف را تحقق بخشند. بنابراين به منظور تحقق هرچه بيشتر اين اهداف، پيش بيني ادوار تجاري در اقتصاد كلان همواره داراي اهميت مي باشد و بخش مهمي از فرآيند تصميم گيري وسياست گذاري اقتصادي را در هر كشور تشكيل مي دهد.   در اين پژوهش از داده هاي فصلي طي دوره ي زماني بين سال هاي 1353تا1393 استفاده گرديده است و به منظور پيش بيني وقوع ركوداقتصادي 115 فصل را بعنوان مجموعه آموزش و به صورت نمونه گيري بدون جايگذاري و 49 فصل را به عنوان مجموعه آزمايش در نظر گرفته شده است.در اين پژوهش در مرحله اول ، ابتدا با توجه به مطالعات صورت گرفته در زمينه ادوار اقتصادي كشور ايران مجموعه اي از متغير هاي موثر بر بروز و پيش بيني اين ادوار معرفي مي گردد سپس با استفاده از تكنيك داده كاوي و روش طبقه بندي موثرترين متغير ها بر بروز اين ادوار شناسايي مي گردد. سپس در مرحله مدل سازي مدل درختان تقويت كننده، در ابتدا با توجه به مجموعه كل داده ها، پارامتر هاي تنظيم كننده   بر اساس معيار هاي دقت مدل Accuracyو kapa بر اساس بيشترين دقت و كمترين RMSE بهينه يابي شده ومناسب ترين مدل در مرحله ساختاري تنظيم مي گردد .سپس اين بهينه يابي در شرايط انتخاب موثرتن شاخص ها نيز صورت مي گيرد و مدل نهايي در زمينه پيش بيني ادوار اقتصادي تعيين مي گرد . در مرحله سوم   براساس بهينه يابي صورت گرفته از مدل و پارامتر هاي تنظيمي مدل، مدل نهايي پيش بيني تنظيم گرديده وفرآيند پيش بيني صورت مي گيرد ودر مرحله آخردقت پيش بيني هاي انجام شده توسط مدل نهايي   RTبه وسيله منحني ارزيابي عمليات گيرنده(ROC) ارزيابي مي گردد.كه نتايج نشان مي دهد كه مساحت سطح زير اين نمودار بالاي 70 درصد است و اين امر ملاكي از دقت بالاي پيش بيني مدل مي باشد . همچنين مدل BRT در مقايسه با دومدل پروبيت و پروبيت بيزين كه در اين پژوهش مورد بررسي قرار گرفتند دقت بيشتري دارد.  

  Tourism is as a multi-disciplinary, multi-issue, multi-sector and multi-form activity. The tourist is only main sector of services in developing countries is constantly compared to the rest of the world has recorded a trade surplus. According to the World Tourism Organization, about half of the least developed countries in world, the tourism sector in terms of rank is the highest exports in between three section. On the other hand, business cycle fluctuations are an integral part of any economy. And study these fluctuations and their effects on the tourism industry as one of the important economic sectors is necessary. This study aimed to "investigate the relationship between trade fluctuations with tourism demand", for the four selected countries of Iran, Turkey, Malaysia and Egypt has been done which have high capability in the field of tourism. The studied period this research was from 1980 to 2014. Variables are logarithmic and are studied to panel data and after examining stationary variables and prove the existence of co-integration relationship between variables, using FMOLS and DOLS panel cointegration tests, long-term relationship between variables was estimated. The results of these tests indicates the negative effect of recession and positive effect of economic boom with tourism demand logarithm. Also by using panel causality test (VECM) studies causality relationship between business cycles and tourism demand. That its results have proved existence long-term bilateral causality relationship between business cycles and tourism demand.

It is obvious that interest rate challenge as an important economic phenomenon has divided economists into different cam   and also answer to question that, what are interest rate nature and its formation and determination, has known as an important subject. In one view , interest rate is a monetary phenomenon that could be determine by money demand and supply, and in other view, it is a real phenomenon that could be determine by average prefer to saving and capital marginal productivity. Interest rate has retribution rule in economic growth promotion and there is an abundant struggle to regulate it into desirable level as a suitable policy in last decades.I  hy  hy; this research,to examine the relationship betwee  the interest rate and  macro  variable  ,  the impact of  these variable  o  economic growth to  a selection of  high - income  countrie  and low - income  hasexpressed  . For this purpose, we use SYS-GMM method during 2000-2014 periods.   The results shows that in low-income countries, there is a significant and positive relationship between real interest rate, inflation and investment with economic growth, and also openness, saving and economic participation rate has negative effects on economic growth. The results for high-income countries shows that inflation, investment, saving and economic participation rates has positive relationship with economic growth but real interest rate and economic openness has negative effect on economic growth.     

  With regard to the existence of adverse effects of increase in the price of imported goods on domestic price index and thus its impact on inflation, it is necessity to consider the internal and external determining factors in the economic policy.Considering the relationship betweeninflation and trade exchanges, economists believe that global communication reduces the role of external factors in the process of increasing inflation and the role of the internal factors. In this article, we investigate the transfer of international inflation among the countries, including Iran, the United Arab Emirates, China, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Turkey with the use of VAR models and the specified data.In this regard, the reliability of the variables is examined using Dickey Fuller test, and then reaction functions and shocks effects were examined using vector auto-regression (VAR) model. Based on immediate functions in the VAR model for the years 1194-2015, we found that unexpected changes in inflation of China had negative effects on inflation in other countries, but as China changes effects are short-term and related to consumed goods, its effects are less evident. Similarly, the shock to other countries has statistically significant economic impact. The results show the internal inflation is affected by variable of imported inflation. We concluded that among the countries surveyed, the UAE imposed the highest imported inflation on Iran. It is due the fact UAE acts as commercial broker between Iran and other countries.

  AbstractIn general, among different factors affecting economic growth, bank credit is of great significance. also, In Iran, due to existing shortcomings of financial market, bank resources is one of the crucial financial resources that is available for firms; since Economic growth requires resource and capital; the resource may be provided for different economic sectors, either by banks or financial institutions, in terms of facilities. Banks with giving facilities provide resources from surplus units to units that they   are need to financial resources for doing economic affairs and it causes to make easy economic activities, increase investment, production and employment. Therefore, banks performance in lending has a significant impact on production and economic growth and vibrations in access to credits, cause to appear disorder in society. Thus, it is necessary the optimal allocation of resources between the various economic sections and reaching this important something need to know affective factors on granted credits by banks. The aim of this study is to investigate the factors affecting credits granted by banks to the private sector in Iran during 1982-2015. To do so, the Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) is used. In this study, the effects of total domestic deposits, foreign liabilities of banking system, real lending interest rates, reserve requirements rate, ratio of broad money to GDP, real GDP, and inflation rate on credits granted by banks to the private sector is reviewed. The findings suggest that variables such as domestic deposits and real GDP positively affect the credits granted by banks to the private sector while legal reserve rate and foreign liabilities of banking system negatively affect the credits granted by banks to the private sector. Also, variables such as real lending interest rates, ratio of broad money to GDP and inflation rate have no effect on the credits granted by banks to the private sector.Keywords: bank credit, Auto Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL), Iran.

Electrical energy is one of the major carriers in the country’s economic growth and development, so it is necessary, as well as other sources of energy used properly. The household sector in Iran for a significan proportion of the power consumption, hence the comprehensive planning and effective policies in order to save electricity consumption, improve life   indicator   households and increasing public welfare is very important. In this study carried out by the description of government policies in the field of optimization domestic consumption of electricity, analysis and administrative problems identified the reasons for the deficiency of the policies. Timeframe research executive years second program until the middle of the fifth development program (1995-2013). The study also in order to collect data   and   information required to use the technique documentary studies and benefiting from quality content analysis method of bottlenecks and problems of the executed policies and analysis. The investigation of used shows that some problems such as lack of domestic electricity tariff reform with an increase in the cost of all, the lack of systematic oversight on how the standardization of household electrical equipment and lack of attention to standards and criteria industrialized countries in this context, the failure of the concept of building national regulations, numerous shortcomings in the system of building engineering and orientation of wrong policy system for stable culture caused despite numerous policy and planning, significant success in the field of domestic electricity consumption is not achieved. The final results of the study also showed that in order to adopt effective policies in future plans, special emphasis policy-makers on employing requirements such as the gradual elimination of the subsidies paid to the high consumption subscribers and attention to incremental-cascade system in electricity tariff reform, supporting the creation of reference laboratories in order to compulsory standards of energy consumption and investment and technological communications with developed countries and pioneer in standardization, the transfer up to date information and expertise from the engineering system organization to electricity engineers with holding training courses on a regular basis and periodically, and reform norms and electricity consumption patterns in the framework of cultural engineering will be very important.