Defense Date: 2026/22/09
Student

AHMED MOHAMMED MAWLOOD

Department / Program Social and educational sciences | Political Science and International Relations

Russia's War and Security in West Asia with a Focus on Supply Shocks in the Global Grain Market

Advisor Rahman Hariri

Abstract

Food security has become one of the most important components of human security and socio-economic stability of countries in recent decades. Geopolitical developments, international crises, and disruptions in global supply chains have demonstrated that food provision is no longer merely dependent on domestic capacities; rather, it is influenced by the structure of global trade, power relations, economic dependencies, and external shocks. The Russia–Ukraine war, which began in 2022, has emerged as a significant geopolitical shock, generating extensive consequences for the global grain market, particularly in the areas of production, exports, tra  ortation, and prices. The importance of this issue for West Asian countries lies in the fact that many of these countries, due to limited natural resources, climatic conditions, and considerable dependence on grain imports, are vulnerable to disruptions in the global food market. This study aims to explain and analyze the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the food security of West Asian countries, focusing on the mechanisms through which supply shocks are transmitted in the global grain market. The main research problem is to examine the pathways and mechanisms through which the Russia–Ukraine war has affected various dimensions of food security in West Asian countries. Drawing upon the theoretical framework of International Political Economy and concepts such as geopolitical shock, shock transmission, import dependency, and food resilience, this research analyzes the relationship between international crises, the global grain market, and their domestic consequences. The research methodology is qualitative and descriptive-analytical, and the required data have been collected through the examination of documents, international reports, official statistics, and academic sources. The findings indicate that the Russia–Ukraine war has affected food security in West Asia through the reduction of effective grain supply, disruptions in exports and tra  ortation, increased trade costs, rising global grain prices, and the transmission of food inflation to domestic markets in importing countries. These impacts have not been limited to physical access to food but have also affected household purchasing power, the stability of food supply systems, and the quality of food consumption. The findings further demonstrate that the severity of the war’s consequences has not been uniform among West Asian countries. Factors such as the level of dependence on grain imports, diversification of supply sources, storage capacity, governments’ financial capabilities, and supportive policies have played significant roles in determining countries’ levels of vulnerability and resilience. Accordingly, the Russia–Ukraine war represents an example of how a geopolitical crisis can transform into a global economic shock, transmitting its effects to different regions through trade networks and interdependencies.